How will the Premier League end up

It is nearly half time in the Premier League, and it appears only one thing is certain that Aston Villa will be relegated.

To come up with the final table I have applied an improvement or regression rating to the performance of each team, I expect Leicester and Watford to come down to earth a bit, but even with a 20% regression in Leicester's performance they have done so well in the first half of the season they should still finish 2nd.

I expect Chelsea to show the biggest improvement in the second half of the season but closely followed by Stoke and Newcastle. For those still believing Chelsea can qualify for the CL they will need a 120% improvement in results and a number of the current top 10 to fall apart.

So I expect the table to end up like this

From a betting point of view the stand out picks are Stoke to finish in the top 10, and to sell Liverpool points finishing position

Arsenal	78
Leicester	72
Man City	71
ManUtd	61
Tottenham	60
Palace	57
Stoke	53
Liverpool	52
West Ham	50
Everton	50
Watford	50
Chelsea	46
Southampton	42
West Brom	41
Newcastle	39
Bournemouth	38
Norwich	33
Swansea	33
Sunderland	27
Aston Villa	16

Am I on for £50 million

So I thought the best way to do review what is happened is to look back at what I thought would happen in August.

As you can see from my table I have half of the table either spot on or with a variance of 2.

The biggest variance and I expect the same for everyone is Chelsea, I thought they would regress but only by 2 places not the whopping 13 they are currently showing, I expect them to move this into a single point variance but cant see them achieving anything better than +5.

Leicester have surprised, I was one who thought that Raneri was a big risk appointment, but he has lost his tinkering and has found a winning formula, they look certain to finish top 10 minimum.

West Ham have surprised, but they have now lost their key man in Payet, I believe they will finish around 12th.

The bottom 6, I am very confident will be spot on, Norwich are not a good side and as when they were last in the Prem they just don't look like scoring enough goals.

In summary I think William Hill £50m predictor pot is very safe from having to pay out.

	August Prediction	Nov Position	Variance
Man City	1	1	0
Arsenal	2	2	0
Chelsea	3	16	13
ManUtd	4	4	0
Liverpool	5	10	5
Tottenham	6	5	-1
Everton	7	9	2
Palace	8	8	0
Swansea	9	14	5
Southampton	10	7	-3
Stoke	11	12	1
Leicester	12	3	-9
West Brom	13	13	0
West Ham	14	6	-8
Aston Villa	15	20	5
Watford	16	11	-5
Newcastle	17	17	0
Bournemouth	18	18	0
Norwich	19	15	-4
Sunderland	20	19	-1

Who leads the line in Euro 2020- Form a queue

Whilst England have comfortably qualified for the finals in France, it is not clear through both form, fitness and formation who will be leading the line for the team in France.

The actual number of viable options is quite small, and two names in the probable are more known as wide players:

Wayne Rooney

His overall record demands inclusion, his tournament performance bar 2004 have been at best below par, he will of course be in the squad, but first pick days could be numbered, he really needs to be scoring more regularly for United, but the power and pace of Depay and Martial may make it difficult to deliver in central striking role.

Raheem Sterling

Has what all defenders fear pace, I think he is becoming a better player and more a team player since joining Manchester City, which will benefit England in the summer, I would love to see him in a wider role but with licence to roam.

Daniel Sturridge

Our best finisher, and showed at the World Cup he can do it at the top level, however he needs to be fit and healthy, and that has not happened for a long time.

Jamie Vardy

The form player, he has excellent attitude and will run all for you, the question mark is will international football be played at the right pace for him, he thrives on the counter attacking game, England will look to have plenty of midfield possession and Vardy will need to be very patient.

Harry Kane

Not convinced that he will cut it at England level, and that could also be argued long term at Premier League, he needs to improve his mobility and stop shooting from miles out, at the moment he would miss out for me.

Theo Walcott

This could be the season and the tournament for all the potential to come together, he has added finishing to his pace, and has plenty of international experience, if Sturridge is not fit Walcott needs to be up top.

Danny Welbeck

Impossible to judge due to the long injury break, he has always looked to me a better player for England than in the Premier League, Hodgson has regularly selected him, so if fit I think he will be selected.

Any outsiders?

Andy Carroll

Good to see him back and scoring, he led the line in Euro 2012 and did it reasonably well, if he keeps fit and scoring he will provided a completely different option, and would be an effective option at 60 minute mark if the game is not going to plan.

Charlie Austin

Staying in Championship probably has ended his chances, only chance is a January move and then a goal glut.

Forgotten men

Ricky Lambert in the 2014 squad, hardly played since, he is what Kane needs to avoid a one season wonder.


So in conclusion, I cant see Sturridge being fit so I would go with Walcott up top, with Rooney and Sterling playing behind him, Welbeck and Carroll being the options from the bench. But as I said at the start of the blog fitness is the biggest unknown for this selection dilemma.

Is Jimmy Anderson really the greatest?

Last week Jimmy Anderson broke the record for the most test wickets for England, but would he be in anyone best ever England eleven.

Certainly in Anderson's favour is his longevity the first specialist bowler to do this for England, he has also stayed pretty injury free through his career, the other key thing to consider is that test cricket has become more of a batsman game, if you look 20 years ago anyone averaging over 40 was considered a good player in today's world you need to be going pass 50 to be considered as a top draw batsman.

The final piece when considering Anderson against some of his peers is the quality of the pitches that he has to bowl on, you just have to look at the pitches in the current series in the Caribbean which are lasting well into the 5 days and sheer persistent rather than outright speed and guile are rewarded.

In the case against Anderson whilst winning the odd test match he has never dominated a series, particularly against Australia, there is not for instance a DVD available called Anderson Ashes.

Leading on from this Anderson has been widely acclaimed as being high skilled in his art but never as truly frightening or unplayable, if you look back at 1981 Botham and Willis were truly devastating Anderson has never had such a day.

I have purposely avoided slavishly doing statistical analysis to prove a point as I don't feel this really adds to the argument, and the game has changed beyond recognition in the last 10 years let alone the last 50.

My view is that Anderson is a good bowler but wouldn't make the final eleven of my all time England team, for what it is worth I would go for the following players to make up my bowling line up.

Andrew Flintoff- Devastating pace when he really want to put it in, and had a golden arm.

Ian Botham- Particularly in the early years when he had combination of pace and swing

Bob Willis- I will forgive his boring persona on Sky and remember his excellent controlled fast bowling.

Graham Swann- Underwood is before my time and Swann although having DRS to help has got over 200 wickets in a successful England team on batting friendly wickets.

The other bowling vacancy is difficult to fill do you go for the unreliable sheer pace of Harmison, swing bowling of Hoggard or Anderson, however final vote goes to Gough who gives you combination of pace and seam bowling craft to complete the bowling attack.

A New Order

A New Order

This weekend saw two events that may just be the start of the changing of the guard both in the Premier League and the Golf world.

Manchester Derby

On paper Man City look a dull functional side and they confirmed this with their performance yesterday, Toure's performance was disgraceful and with all their millions spent on players they completely isolated Aguero, there needs to be a major clear out in the summer and you wonder if it will be a while before they challenge again.

On the flip side it was the best performance I have seen from Manchester United this season, Van Gaal has finally worked out that Rooney is his best striker and Mata is a quality midfield player .

The revelation is Fellini he is playing in between the solo forward and the midfield and generally gets in the way, he does make it very difficult for defenders and making late runs is a very good target at the back post, he also has a good knack of breaking up play forcing the opposition to go a little longer than they may wish and giving away possession. In addition Ashley Young is looking like the player that was signed from Villa 4 years ago.

Van Gaal will hit his target of bringing Champions League football back to Old Trafford, next season will be very interesting to see if he can make them Premier League champions.

The Masters

In some ways the Masters lacked its usual excitement, as Jordan Spieth led from start to finish, the other way to look at it is that we could have been watching the start of the next golfing superstar's career, over the next 5-10 years there could be plenty of battles between Spieth and Mcllroy for the major prizes.

Whilst I was hoping Spieth would slip up to make the tournament exciting the way he kept his nerve in the last round was compelling, his second shot straight at the flag on the 13th and the par putt on 16th showed that he had the makeup of a champion.

The old master Woods performed well, and it will be interesting to see if he can make the level required to seriously challenge at the top of a major leaderboard, I feel he has lost the fear factor though and his time has past.