Sporting Events- I must see

Every year when I watch the Cheltenham Festival, I always say to myself I must actually go next year, but here we are 40+ years in and I haven't achieved it yet, this then got me thinking whatever sports events should be on my "Bucket List".

Masters at Augusta

Is there a better course in the world?

Everything about the golf tournament is perfect, the golf course is pristine, the back nine especially you feel you know every hole inside out, and the fact you are guaranteed to see the current best players in the world in addition to the roll of honour of former Masters champions. I even like the formality of the event and the feeling that the golf club would really prefer no members of the public on the course.
My 3 favourite Masters memories are watching Sandy Lyle win  on a portable black and white TV in the early hours and on the same telly watching Larry Mize chip in to win a playoff.
The best was Greg Norman completely falling apart and letting Nick Faldo go past him, always good to see an Australian sporting defeat!

Mens 100m Olympic Final

Bolt Wins in London

The race has been tainted with both drug cheats winning it and "reformed" characters allowed to run in it, however for pure drama nothing beats it, so much build up and expectation then over in less than 10 seconds. The 100m is the blue riband event and Usain Bolt is the only current athlete I would pay money to watch.

Cheltenham Gold Cup

Don Cossack crosses the line

To watch this race would be fantastic, i have seen most of the flat classics, but with National Hunt racing the back stories and the build up to the races are more intense as you can build up favourites over a few years, through hurdling, novice chasing and then into the elite. I have never had much luck in this race but my interest race was started by both Michael Dickinson having the first 5 home and rushing home from school to see The Thinker win in the snow.

There are a couple of events that I would love to see but the circumstances would need to be right, the world cup final would be a must see if England were playing, if not it doesn't have the same appeal.

The other is a World Snooker Final, but it would need to be a close game along the lines of the 1985 black ball final, with ideally Jimmy White finally winning that elusive world title.

England Squad for Euros

I have given up on trying to work out what is going to happen in the Premier League so started to look ahead to the Euro's, and what the make up of the England squad will look like, the competition is wide open in my view, and England should be getting to the semi finals at least.

It is difficult to plot the progress as if England win the group as expected then they will face a third placed team, finish 2nd and it will be Austria or Portugal, very winnable but slightly trickier. Third place would mean Spain or Germany and if they are playing that badly they would stand no chance against either.

So who are the men that Roy will take to France

Goalkeepers

Joe Hart and Jack Butland are certainties for selection, and Fraser Forster recent form should book him in as the Number 3, this could be Hart's last tournament as undisputed number 1, Butland and Forster are still getting better and will pass him shortly.

Full Backs

England have a number of average players in the full back position, with the injury to Luke Shaw robbing Hodgson of the one potential high class player in this position.

At right back Nathaniel Clyne is in possession and his deputy last time was Kyle Walker, both are far better going forward than defending and neither are comfortable ball players, there may be an option to play John Stones in this position. The wild card could be Kieran Trippier who is regularly rotated with Walker, but I rate him as a better player.

Left back is even weaker, Leighton Baines has been injured all season, Kieran Gibbs cant get into the Arsenal team ahead of Monreal, so this leaves Ryan Bertrand and Danny Rose as the best bets, a similar profile to the right backs with very attacking instincts, lets hope England can find a good defensive midfielder to cover the full backs.

Centre Backs

Worry here is that the three strong choices of Smalling, Stones & Cahill have had poor mid season through form and injury, but they have all played well for England and can be trusted at this level, the fourth spot would for me go to Eric Dier his versatility is key and he would be very close for selection anyway as the holding midfielder. Phil Jagelkia is the other option, but he is one dimensional and I don't see him as an international player anymore.
 
Midfielders

The two form players here are Ross Barkley and Dele Ali, and they have to be selected with the future in mind if nothing else, Ross Barkley should be the first name on the team sheet and the team built around him.

The two dependable's  for the midfield are the Liverpool pair Jordan Henderson and James Milner both are playing well enough to be selected, how much game time they get will depend on how bold selection is.

Working on the assumption that there will be 6 forward players selected that leaves 2 spots, Jack Wilshere and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain can be discounted through injury, which leaves quite a few fighting out.

Adam Lallana has shown signs lately he has rediscovered some of his Southampton form and Aaron Lennon has now added goals to his pacy approach play. Fabian Delph has been in and out of the City side and with ultra sensitive referreing looks like a walking booking.

I have always like Michael Carrick but it is difficult to see how he would get any real opportunity to play, his United colleague Lingard was brought into the squad far to early and has not really done enough to be selected.

The January move for Jon Jo Selvey may have been a mistake for his long term career, and he has displayed a good range of passing, but like Delph he gives fouls and picks up easy bookings

Could West Ham provide two surprise picks, how Mark Noble has never made a squad is beyond me, the other player in a rich vein of form is Michail Antonio, who could also play right back.

Strikers

Plenty of options here and with the following six there are plenty of formation options that they provide.

I would go for the following:

Wayne Rooney
Harry Kane
Daniel Sturridge
Jamie Vardy
Raheem Sterling
Danny Welbeck

I don't see Sturridge as an injury risk a squad of 23 players for a maximum of 7 games, is more than sufficient to carry one or two players as a risk.

Vardy will make an excellent sub, running down defences and effectively defending from the front in the final 20 minutes.

The other possible contender is Theo Walcott, however his performances recently have been woeful, and he should be pushed out by the bright form of Welbeck who has been impressive since returning from injury.

There have been some misguided fools calling for Marcus Rashford to be included, but this makes no sense when there is plenty of proven players to call upon.





So the real decisions need to be made in the midfield selection, and hope that key players stay fit and in form.

For me the starting line up would look something like this


                                                     

City's Title- But which one?

Predicting this years Premier League has been a nightmare with huge swings in form but hopefully with 24 games gone the form is starting to settle.

What have we seen over the last 7 games

Falling away

Palace have completely imploded in the first 17 games they averaged an impressive 1.7 points per game their average over last 7 games have been 0.28.

Arsenal quite publicly have suffered a regression dropping their average return by 0.83 over last 7 games, only beaten by the aforementioned Palace and Watford at 0.93.

Picking Up

The biggest improvement comes from Swansea improving their average return going up by 0.6 points in the last 7 weeks, out of the title challengers only Tottenham have improved their points per game average.

Chelsea are improving but they have only been as good as Swansea so hardly back to their best.


How do they finish up?

1	Man City	77
2	Leicester	76
3	Arsenal	73
4	Tottenham	71
5	ManUtd	65
6	West Ham	62
7	Liverpool	54
8	Southampton	54
9	Stoke	53
10	Everton	51
11	Chelsea	50
12	Watford	47
13	Palace	47
14	Bournemouth	45
15	West Brom	45
16	Swansea	42
17	Newcastle	34
18	Norwich	33
19	Sunderland	31
20	Aston Villa	21

Looking at the bottom first the relegation battle now looks 2 from 3 to join the hapless Villa (who would need a 180% performance improvement to save themselves now)

Swansea, West Brom and Bournemouth will be on the beach early April.

West Ham will leave Upton Park to enjoy Europa Cup action at the Olympic Stadium

Those still doubting Leicester they will need to drop performance by over 30% in the remaining games to miss out on the Champions League given they have dropped 25% over last 7, I cant see them dropping any further.

Cup Commitments and double weeks will put pressure on some squads but in the end
Manchester City will just pip Leicester to the title but it is very close and this makes tomorrows game pivotal.

How will the Premier League end up

It is nearly half time in the Premier League, and it appears only one thing is certain that Aston Villa will be relegated.

To come up with the final table I have applied an improvement or regression rating to the performance of each team, I expect Leicester and Watford to come down to earth a bit, but even with a 20% regression in Leicester's performance they have done so well in the first half of the season they should still finish 2nd.

I expect Chelsea to show the biggest improvement in the second half of the season but closely followed by Stoke and Newcastle. For those still believing Chelsea can qualify for the CL they will need a 120% improvement in results and a number of the current top 10 to fall apart.

So I expect the table to end up like this

From a betting point of view the stand out picks are Stoke to finish in the top 10, and to sell Liverpool points finishing position

Arsenal	78
Leicester	72
Man City	71
ManUtd	61
Tottenham	60
Palace	57
Stoke	53
Liverpool	52
West Ham	50
Everton	50
Watford	50
Chelsea	46
Southampton	42
West Brom	41
Newcastle	39
Bournemouth	38
Norwich	33
Swansea	33
Sunderland	27
Aston Villa	16

Am I on for £50 million

So I thought the best way to do review what is happened is to look back at what I thought would happen in August.

As you can see from my table I have half of the table either spot on or with a variance of 2.

The biggest variance and I expect the same for everyone is Chelsea, I thought they would regress but only by 2 places not the whopping 13 they are currently showing, I expect them to move this into a single point variance but cant see them achieving anything better than +5.

Leicester have surprised, I was one who thought that Raneri was a big risk appointment, but he has lost his tinkering and has found a winning formula, they look certain to finish top 10 minimum.

West Ham have surprised, but they have now lost their key man in Payet, I believe they will finish around 12th.

The bottom 6, I am very confident will be spot on, Norwich are not a good side and as when they were last in the Prem they just don't look like scoring enough goals.

In summary I think William Hill £50m predictor pot is very safe from having to pay out.

	August Prediction	Nov Position	Variance
Man City	1	1	0
Arsenal	2	2	0
Chelsea	3	16	13
ManUtd	4	4	0
Liverpool	5	10	5
Tottenham	6	5	-1
Everton	7	9	2
Palace	8	8	0
Swansea	9	14	5
Southampton	10	7	-3
Stoke	11	12	1
Leicester	12	3	-9
West Brom	13	13	0
West Ham	14	6	-8
Aston Villa	15	20	5
Watford	16	11	-5
Newcastle	17	17	0
Bournemouth	18	18	0
Norwich	19	15	-4
Sunderland	20	19	-1

Who leads the line in Euro 2020- Form a queue

Whilst England have comfortably qualified for the finals in France, it is not clear through both form, fitness and formation who will be leading the line for the team in France.

The actual number of viable options is quite small, and two names in the probable are more known as wide players:

Wayne Rooney

His overall record demands inclusion, his tournament performance bar 2004 have been at best below par, he will of course be in the squad, but first pick days could be numbered, he really needs to be scoring more regularly for United, but the power and pace of Depay and Martial may make it difficult to deliver in central striking role.

Raheem Sterling

Has what all defenders fear pace, I think he is becoming a better player and more a team player since joining Manchester City, which will benefit England in the summer, I would love to see him in a wider role but with licence to roam.

Daniel Sturridge

Our best finisher, and showed at the World Cup he can do it at the top level, however he needs to be fit and healthy, and that has not happened for a long time.

Jamie Vardy

The form player, he has excellent attitude and will run all for you, the question mark is will international football be played at the right pace for him, he thrives on the counter attacking game, England will look to have plenty of midfield possession and Vardy will need to be very patient.

Harry Kane

Not convinced that he will cut it at England level, and that could also be argued long term at Premier League, he needs to improve his mobility and stop shooting from miles out, at the moment he would miss out for me.

Theo Walcott

This could be the season and the tournament for all the potential to come together, he has added finishing to his pace, and has plenty of international experience, if Sturridge is not fit Walcott needs to be up top.

Danny Welbeck

Impossible to judge due to the long injury break, he has always looked to me a better player for England than in the Premier League, Hodgson has regularly selected him, so if fit I think he will be selected.

Any outsiders?

Andy Carroll

Good to see him back and scoring, he led the line in Euro 2012 and did it reasonably well, if he keeps fit and scoring he will provided a completely different option, and would be an effective option at 60 minute mark if the game is not going to plan.

Charlie Austin

Staying in Championship probably has ended his chances, only chance is a January move and then a goal glut.

Forgotten men

Ricky Lambert in the 2014 squad, hardly played since, he is what Kane needs to avoid a one season wonder.


So in conclusion, I cant see Sturridge being fit so I would go with Walcott up top, with Rooney and Sterling playing behind him, Welbeck and Carroll being the options from the bench. But as I said at the start of the blog fitness is the biggest unknown for this selection dilemma.

Is Jimmy Anderson really the greatest?

Last week Jimmy Anderson broke the record for the most test wickets for England, but would he be in anyone best ever England eleven.

Certainly in Anderson's favour is his longevity the first specialist bowler to do this for England, he has also stayed pretty injury free through his career, the other key thing to consider is that test cricket has become more of a batsman game, if you look 20 years ago anyone averaging over 40 was considered a good player in today's world you need to be going pass 50 to be considered as a top draw batsman.

The final piece when considering Anderson against some of his peers is the quality of the pitches that he has to bowl on, you just have to look at the pitches in the current series in the Caribbean which are lasting well into the 5 days and sheer persistent rather than outright speed and guile are rewarded.

In the case against Anderson whilst winning the odd test match he has never dominated a series, particularly against Australia, there is not for instance a DVD available called Anderson Ashes.

Leading on from this Anderson has been widely acclaimed as being high skilled in his art but never as truly frightening or unplayable, if you look back at 1981 Botham and Willis were truly devastating Anderson has never had such a day.

I have purposely avoided slavishly doing statistical analysis to prove a point as I don't feel this really adds to the argument, and the game has changed beyond recognition in the last 10 years let alone the last 50.

My view is that Anderson is a good bowler but wouldn't make the final eleven of my all time England team, for what it is worth I would go for the following players to make up my bowling line up.

Andrew Flintoff- Devastating pace when he really want to put it in, and had a golden arm.

Ian Botham- Particularly in the early years when he had combination of pace and swing

Bob Willis- I will forgive his boring persona on Sky and remember his excellent controlled fast bowling.

Graham Swann- Underwood is before my time and Swann although having DRS to help has got over 200 wickets in a successful England team on batting friendly wickets.

The other bowling vacancy is difficult to fill do you go for the unreliable sheer pace of Harmison, swing bowling of Hoggard or Anderson, however final vote goes to Gough who gives you combination of pace and seam bowling craft to complete the bowling attack.