How will the Premier League end up

It is nearly half time in the Premier League, and it appears only one thing is certain that Aston Villa will be relegated.

To come up with the final table I have applied an improvement or regression rating to the performance of each team, I expect Leicester and Watford to come down to earth a bit, but even with a 20% regression in Leicester's performance they have done so well in the first half of the season they should still finish 2nd.

I expect Chelsea to show the biggest improvement in the second half of the season but closely followed by Stoke and Newcastle. For those still believing Chelsea can qualify for the CL they will need a 120% improvement in results and a number of the current top 10 to fall apart.

So I expect the table to end up like this

From a betting point of view the stand out picks are Stoke to finish in the top 10, and to sell Liverpool points finishing position

Arsenal	78
Leicester	72
Man City	71
ManUtd	61
Tottenham	60
Palace	57
Stoke	53
Liverpool	52
West Ham	50
Everton	50
Watford	50
Chelsea	46
Southampton	42
West Brom	41
Newcastle	39
Bournemouth	38
Norwich	33
Swansea	33
Sunderland	27
Aston Villa	16